It's the end of a nice long holiday weekend, and it's time to start thinking about trading again.  I'm still sitting on a few positions held over from last week, all of which are currently in profit.  I'm short EUR/USD and AUD/USD, and long EUR/AUD.  All of these pairs have retraced a bit in recent days, so we'll see if they resume their trend and I keep riding them, or if they continue to retrace and I get out.

Tonight, I'm eyeing a short setup in GBP/JPY.  The pair has been in a bit of a downtrend in recent months with an area of support around 139.00, and for the past few days it's been hugging a down trendline that has been serving as an area of resistance.  It also happens to be just under a horizontal S/R zone that has been in place since mid-2009.  I think we've got some room to move down between its current price of 146.00 and the aforementioned area of support around 139.00.

I'm going to play this one with a tight initial stoploss - the pair has been consolidating in recent days and a logical place for the initial stoploss would be just above the down trendline.  If we break out to the upside of the falling trendline, I want to get out fast.  So, we'll test the waters with a small position and see where it takes us.  As always, I may be wrong!

This Friday is Christmas, so I suspect that the week in the Forex market will be relatively quiet.  I've got a few open positions that I held over the weekend that I'll be monitoring, but I don't anticipate entering into any new positions (that is, of course, unless I see an opportunity I can't pass up!).

I've currently got an AUD/USD short position that has an unrealized profit of about 100 pips so far.  I entered into this position following the breakdown out of the symmetrical triangle that I mentioned last week.

I'm also short EUR/USD, with an unrealized profit of about 340 pips so far.  This trade has really worked out well for me ever since I got in shortly after the break of the rising trendline.  I took a small portion of this trade off (about 20%) last week just so I could bank some profit, and I've moved my stoploss to breakeven.  I'll be looking to bank more profit if the pair shows any strength this week.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

The third position that I've currently got open is a long EUR/AUD position.  It hasn't taken off quite like the others, and I'm sitting at a 50 pip unrealized loss.  The pair is still above the strong support around 1.6000, so my reason for entering and continuing to be in the trade is still there.  We'll see what this pair does this week.

So, that's what I'm looking at for the upcoming week.  Good trading to all!

The EUR/USD setup I was watching has turned into a short position for me.  The pair broke the rising trendline last week, then retraced slightly to the trendline, before continuing with its move down on Friday.  I jumped in to my short position on Friday as the Euro resumed its move down.  Though we saw an up day today, I'm still bearish this pair for the immediate future.  We'll see what happens...

I'm seeing a potential setup on the EUR/USD daily chart tonight that might turn into a trading opportunity for me.  The pair is at a major rising trendline, and is respecting the trendline... so far.  Here's the chart:

The prevailing trend is up, so I'm still bullish and expecting a bounce. If the pair bounces, I'll catch it near the bottom of the channel with a long position. However, I'm ever-aware of the possibility that the uptrend may be running out of steam, and we could see a breakdown. It's at a key turning point, and I expect the next day or two to tell us which way she's headed.

The overall trend of EUR/AUD has been up since July 2008.  However, looking at just the past six months, the pair has been in a fairly wide sideways trend, bouncing between 1.8500 and 2.1000.  In the past three months, though, we've seen the pair consolidate, forming a nice symmetrical triangle.

The triangle is reaching the point where price has to break out one way or another, and I plan to jump on board with a position when it does.  Hopefully we'll see a nice sustained move in the direction that it chooses to break, but I'm always aware of the possibility of a fakeout.

I'm going to straddle the recent activity by placing a buy order above the recent high of 2.0027 and a sell order below the recent low of 1.93724.  It's possible that neither will be hit in the next few days, especially since we're approaching the weekend, but if the pair does happen to break, I'll be ready.

• Initial Long Entry:  2.0037
• Initial Stoploss:  1.9837

• Initial Short Entry:  1.93624
• Initial Stoploss:  1.95624